Discussion continues on our message board about how options are priced. I love seeing these discussions because it means that members of TheOptionClub.com are developing their understanding of what options are and how they work.
There is always a bit of mental energy needed to grasp these concepts. You have to struggle with the concepts a bit before they sink in. Once they do, you will find that you have a much better sense for how an option will respond to changes in the market.
This is critical. As option traders, we look at the market and question what is likely to occur in the future. Are prices likely to rise? Will volatility fall? As we answer these questions, we begin the process of selecting an option strategy to take advantage of those changes or hedge against them.
I put together a video that introduces these concepts. It's only about 20 minutes long, so it is not a complete education but it will introduce the subject.
Use the above link to access the video. I hope you find it helpful as an introduction. After you have viewed it, be sure to visit our Yahoo! Group where you can review the ongoing discussion and post your own questions and observations.
Trade well!
Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com
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Sunday, October 14, 2007
Sunday, October 7, 2007
When is an option over or under priced?
The real answer to this question is that options are rarely, if ever, over or under priced. Today's options markets are very efficient and options tend to be "fairly priced" at all times.
The better question to ask is whether an option is relatively expensive or inexpensive. Just because an option is expensive does not mean that it is "over priced." There may be a very good reason why the option price has increased; e.g., an anticipated earnings release. There may also be very good reason why an option is relatively inexpensive; e.g., a planned take-over.
As the market becomes more concerned about future price movement, there is a willingness to pay more for options to protect equity positions or to take advantage of anticipated price movement. Once those concerns pass, option prices will likely fall to lower levels.
This whole discussion boils down to a study of implied volatility and how it can be used to assess current option prices. An option is only "cheap" or "under priced" if you expect implied volatility to increase. Conversely, an option is only "expensive" or "over priced" if you expect implied volatility to fall.
You can quickly determine the current implied volatility for any option through any decent options broker. Once you know what the current implied volatility is for an option, you can then compare it to where implied volatilities have been in the past. You can also compare current implied volatility to the historic volatility of the underlying security.
When comparing current implied volatility to where implied volatility has been in the past, you are looking at the changing market expectations for the future volatility of the underlying security. As IV rises, it reflects greater uncertainty and concern in the market for the future price movement of the underlying stock.
For example, you might see IV rise as a key earnings date approaches followed by a return to prior levels once the news breaks. That news may be the catalyst for a large price move, up or down, or it may unfold as a non-event despite the heightened uncertainty that preceded it.
A comparison of implied volatility to the historical volatility of the underlying security allows you to assess whether the market's expectations are consistent with what the stock or index has done in the past. As we have all read in any prospectus or financial disclaimer, past performance is not an indication of future results.
So, if you see IV rising or falling relative to historic volatility, it does not mean that the option is "over" or "under" priced. Rather, it should prompt you to question why the market is pricing in a greater or lesser amount of future volatility. Once you identify the catalyst for the IV change, you can then determine whether you want to be long or short vega.
There are several tools out there that can assist you in this analysis. The "right" tool is largely a function of personal preference. Your goal is to assess current implied volatility for purposes of determining whether you prefer being a net buyer or seller of options.
More information is available on our web site. You might consider reading the article entitled "Implied Volatility - Buying And Selling Stock Options" for further discussion about how IV can impact your trading decisions.
Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com
The better question to ask is whether an option is relatively expensive or inexpensive. Just because an option is expensive does not mean that it is "over priced." There may be a very good reason why the option price has increased; e.g., an anticipated earnings release. There may also be very good reason why an option is relatively inexpensive; e.g., a planned take-over.
As the market becomes more concerned about future price movement, there is a willingness to pay more for options to protect equity positions or to take advantage of anticipated price movement. Once those concerns pass, option prices will likely fall to lower levels.
This whole discussion boils down to a study of implied volatility and how it can be used to assess current option prices. An option is only "cheap" or "under priced" if you expect implied volatility to increase. Conversely, an option is only "expensive" or "over priced" if you expect implied volatility to fall.
You can quickly determine the current implied volatility for any option through any decent options broker. Once you know what the current implied volatility is for an option, you can then compare it to where implied volatilities have been in the past. You can also compare current implied volatility to the historic volatility of the underlying security.
When comparing current implied volatility to where implied volatility has been in the past, you are looking at the changing market expectations for the future volatility of the underlying security. As IV rises, it reflects greater uncertainty and concern in the market for the future price movement of the underlying stock.
For example, you might see IV rise as a key earnings date approaches followed by a return to prior levels once the news breaks. That news may be the catalyst for a large price move, up or down, or it may unfold as a non-event despite the heightened uncertainty that preceded it.
A comparison of implied volatility to the historical volatility of the underlying security allows you to assess whether the market's expectations are consistent with what the stock or index has done in the past. As we have all read in any prospectus or financial disclaimer, past performance is not an indication of future results.
So, if you see IV rising or falling relative to historic volatility, it does not mean that the option is "over" or "under" priced. Rather, it should prompt you to question why the market is pricing in a greater or lesser amount of future volatility. Once you identify the catalyst for the IV change, you can then determine whether you want to be long or short vega.
There are several tools out there that can assist you in this analysis. The "right" tool is largely a function of personal preference. Your goal is to assess current implied volatility for purposes of determining whether you prefer being a net buyer or seller of options.
More information is available on our web site. You might consider reading the article entitled "Implied Volatility - Buying And Selling Stock Options" for further discussion about how IV can impact your trading decisions.
Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com
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