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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Assessing Daily Price Moves

Yesterday saw some relief from recent selling and the market appears to be up again today. Keep an eye on volume, however.

Volume is an indication of the commitment behind a market move. If you're a bull, what you want to see are upward price moves on heavy volume and pull-backs on lighter trade.

Be cautious if you see the opposite; i.e., heavy volume selling and lighter volume pushing the market higher. This is an indication that the "big boys" are not behind the upward price move.

As I have said many times, no one knows with any degree of certainty where the market is headed. If you agree with me in my assessment, you will focus your efforts on managing risk for the purpose of containing losses when they occur.

Going long the market right now is a risky proposition. More conservative investors should be cautious about jumping in, but if you choose to "bottom fish" be sure to establish a stop loss. I have trimmed my portfolio somewhat the last few days, trying to reduce my exposure to further downside moves.

I have not declared myself a bear, yet. However, I want to see a return of volume to the buyside before re-adopting a decidedly bullish market bias.

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Assessing The July 26th Market Sell Off

The market really let loose today and I realize that some may have concern about what this means for investors and traders going forward. Will we see more selling? When will it stop?

Yeah, I know. There are lots of questions.

I have put together a video and have loaded it onto my site. It's free for the viewing and walks you through some basic analysis. I hope you find it helpful.

Stock Market Analysis Video

Watch the video. If you are a conservative investor or trader, I'd suggest holding off on opening new bullish positions and perform a quick review of your current holdings to look for weakness and tighten your stops.

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Selling Vertical Put Spreads

This month I have switched from trading credit spreads and iron condors on the SPX, a cash based index that mirrors the S&P 500, to trading similar positions on the RUT, also a cash based index but one that mirrors the Russel 2000 Small Cap Index.

The reason for this change is that the SPX is only traded in one pit on the CBOE, and my sense is that it is getting increasingly more difficult to get good fills especially when things get busy. In contrast, the RUT is traded on multiple exchanges including several electronic exchanges. Hopefully, this provides for a more efficient market and better overall value for me...the retail trader.

This morning we saw the markets quickly shed a fair bit of their value, but after about 45 minutes of trading they seemed to find their footing although I still see red on the ticker. Nonetheless, I saw this as an opportunity to sell some puts since they were in increasingly high demand.

A word of caution here...

I do not sell naked puts, especially on cash based indexes. This is a dangerous game and not one suitable for most, if not all, traders such as you and me. The reason is because puts act as insurance contracts for the market. If you're selling them, you're acting as a defacto insurance carrier and had better have the capital to pay the losses. Let's just say a bad month could be real trouble.

However, it is very easy to limit your risk of loss by simultaneously purchasing a put contract with each one you sell. You simply buy a put a relatively cheaper put than the one you sell and the difference in price is credited to your account.

This strategy is commonly referred to as a vertical credit spread or, in the case of put options, a bull put spread. So, I have sold some vertical put credit spreads this morning and with a little luck this market sell-off will be short lived.

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Options Mastery Course

I wanted to post a quick reminder that today is the final day to pick up a copy of the Options Mastery course.


Normally, I invite you to leave me with any questions you might have. I will not be at my computer today, so by the time I am able to respond this release of the course will likely have concluded.

However, what I can tell you is that when it comes to mastering the "nuts and bolts" of how options work, this is the course I recommend because I have not found anything else that covers the material as effectively without at least doubling or tripling the cost.

Trade well!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Implied Volatility Scan of the Week

I routinely run various scans on the market, looking for trading opportunities. Recently, I began sharing some of the results of these scans with subscribers to my e-mail newsletter. I thought I would also share with readers of this blog.

What follows is a portion of the data from an Implied Volatility scan I ran using Monday's closing data. It identifies stocks with IV hitting a new high for about the last year.

Historically High Implied Volatlity

Symbol (1)Low IV (2)High IV (3)Today's IV

XOM 16.51, 26.06, 26.06
WMI 16.02, 27.09, 27.09
USB 11.6, 19.39, 19.39

TWX 15.18, 27.13, 27.13
TASR 34.08, 88.44, 88.44
SGP 16.98, 32.78, 32.78

RTN 12.45, 22.56, 22.56
RDC 27.25, 49.44, 49.44
PRU 14.05, 23.79, 23.79

PCLN 25.51, 53.73, 53.73
PCG 12.51, 25.49, 25.49
OMC 14.76, 26.24, 26.24

MMM 14.2, 24.04, 24.04
MERQ 0.07, 88.19, 88.19
MEL 14.14, 30.59, 30.59

MBG 8.63, 106.13, 106.13
LMT 15.11, 25.69, 25.69
LH 13.95, 29.06, 29.06


This is a mechanical scan. The results of the scan have been NOT been verified. Before any trading decisions are made you do need to verify the accuracy of the data and take a closer look at the underlying stock to determine the reason why IV has reached a relative high.

For more information about Implied Volatility and how to use it in your trading, you might take a moment to read the following article:


If you find it useful, please let me know!

Trade well,

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Thursday, July 19, 2007

How High Will The DJIA Go?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is pushing to breach the 14,000 level. Most people, including myself, believe that the market will take that price level and move higher.

The bigger question many are asking is how high is the DJIA likely to go? The reality is that no one can answer the question reliably.

However, there are tools out there than can help us to make projections. What's important about doing so is that you want to establish a market expectation for yourself.

By establishing a market expectation, you can position yourself so that you are trading in concert with what you anticipate the market will do. Of course, knowing that we can't always be right, you'll have an exit plan in place to close any trade when things do not work out. Money management, right? Right.


Here is a video that takes a long term look at the DJIA, demonstrating how you might go about projecting a long term path for the index. Once you have an expectation of where it is headed, then you just need a method of triggering you into the market at opportune times and a method for limiting losses when a trade goes awry.

Combine those three things, and you have what can be a simple but effective trading system... This stuff ain't rocket science, after all!

Trade well.

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Monday, July 16, 2007

Stock Options Expiration Week

It is options expiration week, which means that if you have any July contracts left in your portfolio it is a good time to take a look at them and figure out what you want to do with them.

In my account, I began adjusting positions last week and will continue to do so this week. Before the market broke out, I was able to buy back my short SPX call options for a .10 debit. The long contracts were left in place, so when the SPX broke out to the upside I was able to sell the longs for a .10 credit. The put contracts will likely expire worthless as they are now far out-of-the-money. Alternatively, the short contracts could be bought cheaply and the risks of expiration avoided.

It rarely makes sense to expose your portfolio to risky position simply to squeeze a little extra from the trade. Consider a 5 point credit spread that you could close for a .10 debit. Are you willing to risk a $490 loss to earn an extra $10?

I am not suggesting that you close all your positions today. What I do suggest is that you look at expiration week from the point of view of a risk manager, rather than focusing upon the extra bit of profit you might collect.

Whether you plan to close your July contracts or let them expire, keep an eye on things this week and don't forget to mind your risk. Often, options traders leave themselves exposed to significant risks simply because they don't want to pay a nickel or dime to close a position.

Trade well!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Friday, July 13, 2007

Stock Market Break Out!

Yesterday was a huge day for the market! This was all apparently triggered by merger news and better-than-expected retail news.

The Dow industrials soared 2.1%, matching their best percentage gain since Oct. 1, 2003. The S&P 500 bounced 1.9%, the NYSE composite 1.8%. The Nasdaq galloped 1.9%. Volume grew across the board. It climbed 10% on the Nasdaq and 9% on the NYSE compared with Wednesday's levels.


When I posted a couple days ago, I was concerned that the market was not making new highs and that we were looking at a triple top. However, we were also looking at a consolidation that would eventually result in a break out. The trick was figuring out whether it would break out to the upside or the downside...

We've been spared the continued suspense. The market broke out yesterday on higher volume. The SPX broke resistance and has made a new high. What we're looking for today is confirmation, meaning we want to see the bulls exploit this breakout and push the market higher. Right now, the market is flat.

The chart above clearly shows the breakout. You should also note that a green (bullish) MarketClub Trade Triangle appeared. If you're not familiar with these indicators, understand that you would not trade each time a triangle appears on a daily chart. Rather, the recommended method involves using longer time frames (i.e., weekly and monthly charts) to identify the longer term trend and then use shorter term charts for entry signals. Yesterday's trade triangle is a potential entry point for the S&P 500.

My portfolio is little changed since I last updated you. I have made some adjustments, but those were due primarily to the approaching expiration. I have started rolling into August and shutting other profitable positions down. Yesterday's surge may see my roll one or two bullish time spreads into vertical spreads, but I don't expect that a lot of modification will be needed.

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Options Mastery Series 2007 Edition Now Available

On July 2, 2007, I posted to the blog about Options University's 2007 edition of their Options Mastery course being re-released. The day for the re-release is today!


Options are increasingly becoming an important wealth building tool. You probably already appreciate this fact since you're reading my blog. However, with the NASDAQ now poised to enter the options market we are going to see more efficiencies and even better trading opportunities than we have in the past.

If you are new to options, or if you have not yet mastered the subject, this is an excellent opportunity to take a step in the right direction. Options are the only tool I am aware of that allow you to reduce your risk in the market, while also leveraging your opportunity for profits. The key to unlocking their potential is not a piece of software or trade advisory service, but simply a thorough understanding of how options work.

The reason I recommend the Options Mastery course is because I have evaluated several educational programs. I have spoken with students from other companies that have spent tens of thousands of dollars on multiple courses, "PhD" programs, etc., and still have not been introduced to material critical to their success as options traders.

What do you need to know?

At a minimum, I think you need to have an understanding of the options pricing model. You do not need to calculate options prices yourself, but you do need to have an appreciation for those factors that will effect the value of an options position and how that position will respond to various changes in the market. If you do not have such an understanding, you are simply "hoping" and "guessing" about whether your trade will turn profitable.

An understanding of synthetic and embedded positions is also important, as these are foundational to being able to execute intelligent position adjustments for purposes of reducing risk, taking profits off the table, and responding to changes in the market. I see too many traders adjust themselves from a losing position to a bigger loss, simply because they do not understand these concepts.

There is more, of course. However, you probably get my point.

So, why Ron Ianieri and his course?

Ron is a true professional. He learned his craft on the trading floor. His skill and knowledge as an options trader was recognized and he became THE specialist for Dell options when Dell was an exploding, hot stock. Ron possesses more than an academic understanding of options. His invaluable experience, along with the academic knowledge, was poured into a training course for new floor traders designed to prepare them to walk out onto a trading floor and compete with the seasoned veterans. That trader trainee course is the nucleus of Ron's Options Mastery course.

Options Mastery is a complete course.

The course consists of a series of DVD videos featuring instruction from Ron Ianieri. I have a complete copy of this course in my office and I still pull video discs off the shelf for a refresher course on various topics. Trading is just like baseball... It's all about the fundamentals!

The course goes on sale today at 12:00 p.m.

If you follow the link before that time, you'll see a live video by Ron and a count down to when the course goes on sale.


There are a limited number of courses available. I know some people think this is a marketing gimmick, but I can tell you from past experience that this is no gimmick. Options University stands behind each course and supports their customers. They limit the number of courses so that they can provide the needed support. It's good business for them because they have happier clients and customers, and good business for those who purchase the course.

The course does sell out, however. During the last release, the course had to be pulled off the market ahead of time because they had sold all available copies. The point is that if you're ready to proceed with your options education, don't let procrastination stand between you and the furtherance of your goals.

If you have questions, please feel free to ask. I'll do my best to answer them. If I'm not able, I'll forward them over to the folks at Options University.

As always, good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

MarketClub Trade Triangle on the S&P 500

The market saw a fair amount of selling yesterday, which accelerated heading into the close. Volume was high, which is an indication of institutional selling. The Nasdaq sank 1.2%, the NYSE composite and S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, the DJIA fell 1.1%, and small caps fared the worse, with the S&P 600 shedding 1.8%. One bright spot was that leading stocks seemed to be holding up.


This morning, the bulls have regained some of the ground lost yesterday. The overall market remains in a confirmed rally, but I am questioning how much additional upside we'll see this year. If you look at a chart of the S&P 500, we made a high in June of 1,540 and have now been turned back twice since then. The inability of the market to make a new high does not bode well for further price gains.

However, notice the bottom of our current range. As this formation tightens up, it will likely break out. The question is whether the breakout will be to the upside or downside. You will get differing opinions on this. Some favor the prior trend. The fact is that it can go either way.

My options portfolio continues to maintain a bullish bias, but I will be keeping a close eye on things going forward. A range bound market is good for me, as I can continue to pull in short options premium. However, if we see a downturn, it will be time to pull back on those positive deltas and consider a more bearish profile.

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Instant Profits Swing Trading

Swing trading is a strategy designed to take advantage of the market's natural tendency to pull-back or correct after a directional move.

For example, a stock may run up several points. Investors see an opportunity to take some profits and the stock's price sags as they sell off their shares. Once that round of profit taking is over, buyers take over and push the stock's price higher.

Simple concept, but difficult to apply... If you don't know what you're doing, that is.

I am a huge fan of Bill Poulos' swing trading courses. I personally have three of his courses and have become a better trader with each one.

The reasons I like his courses are threefold: 1.) Bill really knows swing trading, and he should because he's been doing it for a long time; 2.) the courses and trading systems described in them are well designed and are completely solid in what they teach; and 3.) they are much more affordable than the multi-thousand dollar seminars.

Talking about affordable, here's a chance to save $100. Plus, I'll sweeten the deal with an additional bonus.

Bill Poulos is offering a deal on two of his courses. Instant Profits is the first swing trading course I owned. He offers a companion course called Super Divergence Blue Print.

Right now, if you buy one of those courses you can pick the other up with a $100 discount. Here is how the deal works...

If you buy Instant Profits using the link below, on the 'thank you' web page that you see after you purchase, Bll has placed a special link that will let you save $100.00 off of his Super Divergence Blueprint course - and vice versa.


I think the $100 discount is pretty generous, so I wanted to pass that along to you.

But wait, that's not the end of it. I am throwing in a bonus, too!

If you decide to purchase the two courses, or even just one, using one of the links above, forward a copy of your receipt to me and I will provide you with an audio recording to help you adapt Bill's swing trading systems for use with options.

Also, if you want more information about Instant Profits or Super Divergence Blue Print, I have reviewed both systems. Use the links below to read the published reviews...


So go ahead and discover each course at the above links - but remember... to save the $100, get one course, and then get the other from the 'thank you' web page to lock in your deal. When you get your confirmation e-mail, hit the forward button and send a copy to me. I'll send you a download link for "Swing Trading With Stock Options."

Good trading, folks!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Sunday, July 8, 2007

Blackstone Group, L.P., and Hilton Hotels Corp.

Did you buy Blackstone Group L.P. (BX) when it went public several days ago?

I hope not. The stock spiked at the open to a high about $38 per share and then fell to a low of $29.75 over the next several trading days. It closed last week at $31.50, still well off it's opening day high.

There was another play involving Blackstone Group that could have still made you money a nice chunk of change, though...

Blackstone Group, L.P., is a private equity company. They make their money by purchasing other companies that they believe are undervalued or that can be turned around. A few days ago they announced their intention to purchase Hilton Hotels, Corp. (HLT) , which sent the hotel company's stock soaring!



Okay. So absent inside information or a working crystal ball, how could you have caught this move?

Well, I am here to tell you that you could have...

I can say that, because I saw it with my own eyes. This was the hidden Blackstone play that savvy MarketClub members had the opportunity to jump on.


If you use the above link, you will be treated to a video that reveals how traders were positioned for this move in advance of the Blackstone Group's buy out bid.

Now, an options trader could have really cleaned up if they knew what they were doing...

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Saturday, July 7, 2007

A Major Shift In The Options Market About To Arrive!

A few days ago, I sent out an e-mail to everyone on my list with a link to a video presentation informing them about a major shift coming in Q3 of this year that will change how I, you, and other investors trade forever. If you are on my mailing list and have already viewed the video, you already have an idea of what's coming.

If not, I thought I'd give you the chance...

The video features Ron Ianieri and provides information about a conversation he had with a Vice President from the NASDAQ. This information will likely be common knowledge in a matter of weeks or perhaps months, but right now it is only known to a few insiders and those with whom they happen to share the information.


The video is currently up, but will only remain available for a few more days. If you have not viewed it, take the time to do so now.

Good trading!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com

Monday, July 2, 2007

Options Mastery Series 2007 Edition to be Re-Released

I have it on good authority that the Options Mastery Series 2007 edition by Ron Ianieri will be re-released in the coming weeks. I do not have specific details, but I will post them as soon as the become available.

This is my #1 course selection for those who are interested in mastering the subject of stock options trading. I happen to own a copy of the course myself and have written a review that is up on the web site.


I'll be talking with the folks at Options University and will put together a bonus for anyone who decides to buy the course.

Trade well!

Christopher Smith
TheOptionClub.com